Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch- Day 35

Where is Caesar? Does anyone know?

The first debate is this week right?

Monday, September 29, 2008

Labor walks with Foley

I was there I wish I had brought my camera.

This Saturday, September 27th, over 50 members from four unions amassed in Brookhaven to walk door to door with Brian X. Foley, talking to voters about Foley's record of changing government and fighting for the working families of Suffolk County. Members of CWA Locals 1104 and 1108, SEIU Local 32BJ, and RWDSU volunteered their Saturday afternoon to join together and walk in the Shirley and Mastic Beach neighborhoods.
"We're proud to walk with Brian X. Foley today, because working people in Brookhaven and Islip deserve more than they're getting thanks to Caesar Trunzo's 36 years of failed economic policies," said Anthony Eramo, CWA Local 1104 Shop Steward. "Trunzo has been in the pocket of special interests for far too long. He's in Albany working for the HMOs and lobbyists; not for the people of this District. We're dedicated to a strong future for middle-class families on Long Island - that's why we're for Brian."

The first labor walk follows on the heels of an exciting week for the Foley campaign. Foley was endorsed this week by seven labor unions. CWA District 1, CWA Local 1108, UFCW Local 1500, RWDSU, UAW Region 9A, SEIU 32BJ, and New York Hotel and Motel Trades Council all threw their support behind Brian X. Foley's campaign. This powerful show of support from labor unions illustrates the strength of Foley's appeal to working families and the momentum of his campaign in Islip and Brookhaven.

In addition a recent public poll by the Siena Research Institute showed that Foley and 36 year incumbent Caesar Trunzo are in a statistical dead heat going into the final 5 weeks of the campaign. This was just the first of three labor walks for Foley. Members will also join Foley to walk the District in October and on Election Day weekend.

"I am honored to be joined by our friends from labor as we go door to door talking to voters about the change we'll bring to Albany," said Foley. Our Coalition for Change is passionate about ending Senator Trunzo's failed policies as part of the Albany status quo. Together, we will win this election and bring the same integrity and common sense approach to government that we used to turn Brookhaven around."


I haven't had such a good time in ages. It felt great!

Friday, September 26, 2008

Brian Foley is on the air!

Finally! Here's Foley's new TV ad.



Here's some analysis

The ad unintentionally highlights one of the central dynamics of this entire election: people are sick and tired of things as they are. Locally, it's property taxes; at the state level, an un-democratic, dysfunctional legislature coupled with a culture of secrecy and legalized bribery of legislators, special-interest groups, and citizens themselves, all while the budget tanks and nobody has a clue what to do about any of this; nationally, with a war we didn't need to fight, with a financial sector in meltdown, with job losses that will top a million before Christmas and, of course, with millions of Americans losing their homes. Trunzo's decision to call for continuity - other republicans, notably New York Senate republicans, are trying to make the same argument - flies in the face of everything that we know about public opinion in this cycle.

The Senate republicans have made a number of bad choices this cycle, recruiting a weak field of candidates and spending millions of dollars to go on offense without moving the needle much, if at all, in their targeted races. Trunzo's stay-the-course messaging - and similar efforts by other members of his conference - may prove to be a similar mistake.


Way to go, Brian.

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch- Day 31

Am I beginning to detect a pattern here?

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch- Day 30

More crickets....

Dean Skelos says Sienna sucks

Those Siena polls must have hit a little too close to home for "Mean Dean" Skelos. Now he's trying to say they aren't any good.

Not surprisingly, Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos is questioning the methodology of yesterday's Siena poll that brought bad news for his Republicans, including tight races for two veteran incumbents, Serphin Maltese and Caesar Trunzo, and a double-digit lead for Democratic Sen. Craig Johnson in Seklos' backyard.
"I don't believe the Sienna poll is correct and we have our own internal polling that polls that have been done within all of these different district within the past 20 years that indicate a lot different," Skelos said.

"You know, they use the random digit dialing. Sienna has never done a poll in a senate districts and random digit dialing, for all you know, all the phone calls could've gone into Great Neck."


There's a problem with that malarkey though. It isn't true. Skelos just made the whole thing up:

UPDATE: Jerry Skurnik settles the matter, writing that his firm provided the information used by Siena for its polling:
"Siena College bought the random samples for their recent state Senate polls from Prime New York. The samples were registered voters, not random-digit dialing."


Nice try, Dean. Your boy is in trouble.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

More on that poll

From Newsday:



Both candidates can find comfort in today's Siena College Poll of Senate District 3. The bottom line is that this contest is still very much up for grabs. Considering the margin of error, this race could very well be a statistical dead heat. That is good news for Brian Foley, who trails an incumbent by just six points. The fact that Caesar Trunzo has a six point lead is also encouraging for him. In fact, here are several encouraging signs for Trunzo:

Trunzo trails by just 2 points in Brookhaven and has a 12-point lead in Islip.

Trunzo's Republican base appears stronger than Foley's democrat base.

Trunzo has a significant lead among younger voters which is surprising.

But, there is also the good news for Foley:

Foley leads with women and minority voters, who are expected to turn out in disproportionately larger numbers in this presidential election year.

Foley enjoys a slight lead among independent voters.

The key to this race appears to be the undecided independent voters, especially in Brookhaven. Independent voters make up the largest block of undecided voters and very well may decide this contest.

Right now, McCain vs. Obama is a dead heat in this district. Foley needs Obama to do better. Trunzo needs McCain to continue to keep it close.

If this poll is to be believed, the SD 3 race at the present time is very tight and could well be headed for a photo finish on election night!!

Look for lots of money to be spent and appearances on behalf of the candidates by the big guns on both sides in the weeks to come. This is exciting!


First, there's nothing exciting about Caesar Trunzo. Second, if the GOP is going to bring in some big guns to campaign with Trunzo, it means that they will actually have to produce him and show him in public. The press will be there. They take pictures.

I don't see that happening.

Foley has got some work to do but he's in a good spot now. He can makeup ground in Brookhaven and no way Trunzo holds on to the youth vote. I also think that Trunzo is overperforming in Islip. That won't last.

There is so much work to do. Doors to knock, phonecalls to make. But this is a winnable race. There is no doubt about it.

New Poll shows 6 point race

I would have loved to see Brian Foley up by 6 points, but he's right on Caesar Trunzo's heels. The Siena College poll came out this morning and it's Trunzo up by 6. He's under 50% though and that's a very good thing. I bet he hasn't been under 50% since Nixon was still president.

Newsday has a statement from Brian Foley:

The Siena poll this morning showed Republican Cesar Trunzo leading Brian Foley in Suffolk, Dem Craig Johnson crushing Barbara Donno in Nassau, and the battle for the state Senate tight as a tick overall.

Here's a statement from the Foley campaign, which sees a 46-40 deficit as evidence that a majority doesn't want the incumbent:

"The voters of Islip and Brookhaven are tired of skyrocketing property taxes and the failed economic policies of the Albany status quo, and no amount of misleading and negative attack ads will change that. We are not surprised that a majority of voters do not want Caesar Trunzo to represent them in Albany any longer - after 36 years of dysfunction, voters are hungry for change."


Foley can win this thing. Trunzo is in trouble. I guess I'm going to have to knock on some more doors.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 27

Hello? Is this thing on?

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Fresh Troops

Some people from the Daily Gotham blog were in the District today.

On The Road With Brian X. Foley.

There are some really good pictures of Foley HQ, where I have been spending more and more time lately.

You should too.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 25

If a 82 year old state senator falls in the Long Island woods and no one is there to hear it...

Friday, September 19, 2008

Trunzo Taxis


Been seeing these everywhere. It's not as unheard of as the TAP people seem to think, but I don't know that I have ever seen so many of them before.

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 24

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, still nothing. Nada. Zippo from Trunzo.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 22

Not gonna happen I'm afraid.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Monday, September 15, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 20

Not only have we not heard a word from Caesar's camp - nobody even seems to know where he is anymore.

Newsday says infighting in Islip may not be helpful to Trunzo

No kidding.

State Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos cannot be happy.

A flurry of calls after last week's primary went back and forth to end the fight between state Sen. Caesar Trunzo and dissident Islip Republicans. Trunzo was to announce he would step down as town GOP chairman after Election Day, with a new leader elected by year's end.

In return, mavericks would back Trunzo for re-election in what is becoming the toughest race of his 83-year life, against Brookhaven's Democratic Supervisor Brian Foley.

Instead, warring factions issued dueling press releases, only inflaming an already tense situation.

"This is not what Dean wanted," said one veteran Republican insider, adding that the new Senate GOP leader pressed Trunzo to put the issue behind him. "He wanted everyone standing together doing a kumbaya and posing for pictures."

(clip)

Trunzo declined to be interviewed, but through a spokesman said, "I reached out my hand ... and this is the response I get. I find their response unfortunate and disappointing."

Dissident leader Frank Tantone said he was just as disheartened. He said encouraging talks through emissaries early Wednesday soured by 9 p.m.

"We could have coronated him," Tantone said, alluding to a group fundraiser set for tomorrow. "He would have gotten a hero's welcome."

Critics say the breakdown came because Trunzo, as in talks last year, wants to "handpick" party vice chairwoman Jeanette Messina as his successor. They also feared the party leader would name "phony paper committee members" before the convention to ensure Messina's election. They say Messina, long the day-to-day town leader but recently ailing, shares blame for losing the supervisor and town board and failing to get the GOP district court judge slate on the ballot.

"Chairman Trunzo has to stop listening to those who are operating out of the same tired, self-serving playbook which has resulted in the committee's current ... disarray," Tantone said in the group's scalding news release.

Schettino said Messina's son, Vincent, former town attorney and shrewd party lawyer, told him, "We control the gavel; we'll control the convention."


They are in a real bad spot. Caesar can't campaign for himself anymore. Anyone who has seen the man in the last few years knows that. So the party is going to have to do it for him and they are in a state of open civil warfare. And who should they blame? They should blame Caesar Trunzo (and Joe Bruno for keeping him so long). He's held on about 10 years too long and everyone knows it. Now they are stuck with a helpless candidate and a divided party.

Yeah you could say that Dean Skelos isn't happy.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 17

Not a peep. In his defense though, it is hard to hear him here on Long Island from all the way down in Florida where he actually lives.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 16

Still nothing from the Trunzo camp.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 15

It's been two weeks since Brian Foley issued a challenge to Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) for a series of five debates. Still no word from Caesar's handlers on not only will Trunzo agree to debate even once, but even if they'll dare to show Caesar in public before November.

I can't see how they can afford to let him debate, but I'll be keeping a running, regular watch to see if they even reply right here on this site.

Stay tuned but, don't get your hopes up.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

TAP asks simple question:

Q:SD-3: Where In The World In Caesar Trunzo?

A: Florida, where he lives.

See? Wasn't that easy?

Trunzo bails on appearance this weekend in Mastic

Ha! Don't say I didn't tell you so. They are going to try to keep Caesar Trunzo hidden until after November.

This past Wednesday night, 34 year incumbent Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) was a no show for a meeting of the Montauk Merchants Association in Mastic. Congressman Tim Bishop and his opponent were there as was State Senator Ken Lavalle (R-Brookhaven) who is unchallenged in his re-election. This is known to be a very Republican leaning audience of small business owners in the Shirley/Mastic area. Here is an accounting from Kirk Cronk of the Foley campaign of the event.

Yesterday evening a meet the candidates night was held by the Montauk Highway Merchants Association in Mastic. Both Congressman Bishop and his opponent attended as well as Brian Foley, but his opponent Senator Trunzo was a no show for a crowd of 200 people.
Senator Lavalle attended since he represents a portion of the community and spoke for himself with a few kind words for Caesar, but his main message was beware of those people from New York City. The same old tired discredited message for the last forty years recycled again. Foley spoke with personal knowledge of the problems of the district and exactly what he was going to do in Albany. Even in the partisan atmosphere of the room he was well received.
Along while back I informed the community that Trunzo was not likely to wage any type of retail politics effort at the age of 82. He actually never enjoyed these events as he was always concerned about being challenged by his opponents presence necessitating the need for a response that requires being fast on your feet. Caesar has never been accused of being fast on his feet or any other way where deep thought is required.

It looks as though it will be Brian Foley who is canvassing daily and attending every single live event in the district against Trunzo and his plans to let his campaign funds do the talking with paid media. Unfortunately for Trunzo, Foley has pockets that will also be very deep. To date, I have received six Foley direct mailers to two for Trunzo. I am liking our chances for a pickup here more and more each day.


I'm telling you: Trunzo can't campaign anymore. They are going to have to do it for him while they keep on ice down in Florida.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Ha! Joe Mondello wants McCain to campaign with Trunzo!

NY republicans want the national GOP to pay more attention to NY, instead of just showing up for money.

Jow Mondello even wants McCain to come campaign with Caesar Trunzo!

State GOP Chairman Joe Mondello wants McCain to campaign with state Senate candidates targeted by the Democrats - perhaps Queens Sen. Serphin Maltese or Long Island Sen. Caesar Trunzo.
"New York is more than just a place to stop and get money," the chairman declared."


There is a real problem with that plan, Joe. You'd actually have to produce Caesar for McCain to be able to appear with him.

Maybe he could do a stop with Caesar in a real swing state. Florida comes to mind.

Not holding my breath. No word from Trunzo on debates

It's been a week since Brian Foley challenged Caesar Trunzo to 5 debates before the election and still no word from Caesar's people.

Farmingville, NY - One week ago, Supervisor Brian Foley challenged 36-year incumbent Caesar Trunzo to a series of 5 Town Hall debates across Islip and Brookhaven. The challenge was hand-delivered to a Trunzo campaign staffer in the campaign's Patchogue office. Seven days later, Caesar Trunzo has not responded.
"In a recent TV ad, Caesar Trunzo says that 'you don't fix what's not broken,'" said Supervisor Foley. "But I have been walking the District and talking to voters, and they have told me a far different story. The Senator and I owe it to the community to debate whether we should take a new approach to problems such as property taxes, health care and education, or whether the status quo is working-as Senator Trunzo believes."

Supervisor Foley proposed 5 town hall debates in Patchogue, West Sayville, Holbrook, Mastic Beach, and Central Islip:

Patchogue: Education, Wednesday, September 24th 6-8pm
West Sayville: Property Tax Reform, October 8th 6-8pm
Holbrook: Healthcare, October 15th 6-8pm
Mastic Beach: Environment, October 22th 6-8pm
Central Islip: Economic Development, October 29th 6-8pm

"Senator Trunzo has served in the New York State Senate for 36 years, and he has been reluctant to debate his opponents in the past," Foley said. "But I have always felt the community deserves a real discussion of the issues, beyond 30-second ads. I call on Senator Trunzo to stop giving 'no comment' to the press and hiding behind spokespeople. He needs to say in his own words whether he will debate the issues with me. And if he won't, he owes the voters an explanation as to why he can't stand before them and answer their questions."


He can't debate anyone, people. Those days are over. His campaign is going to have to win wage this campaign without him.

He's just not there anymore, people.