More on that poll

From Newsday:

Both candidates can find comfort in today's Siena College Poll of Senate District 3. The bottom line is that this contest is still very much up for grabs. Considering the margin of error, this race could very well be a statistical dead heat. That is good news for Brian Foley, who trails an incumbent by just six points. The fact that Caesar Trunzo has a six point lead is also encouraging for him. In fact, here are several encouraging signs for Trunzo:

Trunzo trails by just 2 points in Brookhaven and has a 12-point lead in Islip.

Trunzo's Republican base appears stronger than Foley's democrat base.

Trunzo has a significant lead among younger voters which is surprising.

But, there is also the good news for Foley:

Foley leads with women and minority voters, who are expected to turn out in disproportionately larger numbers in this presidential election year.

Foley enjoys a slight lead among independent voters.

The key to this race appears to be the undecided independent voters, especially in Brookhaven. Independent voters make up the largest block of undecided voters and very well may decide this contest.

Right now, McCain vs. Obama is a dead heat in this district. Foley needs Obama to do better. Trunzo needs McCain to continue to keep it close.

If this poll is to be believed, the SD 3 race at the present time is very tight and could well be headed for a photo finish on election night!!

Look for lots of money to be spent and appearances on behalf of the candidates by the big guns on both sides in the weeks to come. This is exciting!

First, there's nothing exciting about Caesar Trunzo. Second, if the GOP is going to bring in some big guns to campaign with Trunzo, it means that they will actually have to produce him and show him in public. The press will be there. They take pictures.

I don't see that happening.

Foley has got some work to do but he's in a good spot now. He can makeup ground in Brookhaven and no way Trunzo holds on to the youth vote. I also think that Trunzo is overperforming in Islip. That won't last.

There is so much work to do. Doors to knock, phonecalls to make. But this is a winnable race. There is no doubt about it.

New Poll shows 6 point race

I would have loved to see Brian Foley up by 6 points, but he's right on Caesar Trunzo's heels. The Siena College poll came out this morning and it's Trunzo up by 6. He's under 50% though and that's a very good thing. I bet he hasn't been under 50% since Nixon was still president.

Newsday has a statement from Brian Foley:

The Siena poll this morning showed Republican Cesar Trunzo leading Brian Foley in Suffolk, Dem Craig Johnson crushing Barbara Donno in Nassau, and the battle for the state Senate tight as a tick overall.

Here's a statement from the Foley campaign, which sees a 46-40 deficit as evidence that a majority doesn't want the incumbent:

"The voters of Islip and Brookhaven are tired of skyrocketing property taxes and the failed economic policies of the Albany status quo, and no amount of misleading and negative attack ads will change that. We are not surprised that a majority of voters do not want Caesar Trunzo to represent them in Albany any longer - after 36 years of dysfunction, voters are hungry for change."

Foley can win this thing. Trunzo is in trouble. I guess I'm going to have to knock on some more doors.

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 27

Hello? Is this thing on?

Fresh Troops

Some people from the Daily Gotham blog were in the District today.

On The Road With Brian X. Foley.

There are some really good pictures of Foley HQ, where I have been spending more and more time lately.

You should too.

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 25

If a 82 year old state senator falls in the Long Island woods and no one is there to hear it...

Trunzo Taxis

Been seeing these everywhere. It's not as unheard of as the TAP people seem to think, but I don't know that I have ever seen so many of them before.

Caesar Trunzo Debate Watch - Day 24

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, still nothing. Nada. Zippo from Trunzo.