Wednesday, September 24, 2008

More on that poll

From Newsday:

Both candidates can find comfort in today's Siena College Poll of Senate District 3. The bottom line is that this contest is still very much up for grabs. Considering the margin of error, this race could very well be a statistical dead heat. That is good news for Brian Foley, who trails an incumbent by just six points. The fact that Caesar Trunzo has a six point lead is also encouraging for him. In fact, here are several encouraging signs for Trunzo:

Trunzo trails by just 2 points in Brookhaven and has a 12-point lead in Islip.

Trunzo's Republican base appears stronger than Foley's democrat base.

Trunzo has a significant lead among younger voters which is surprising.

But, there is also the good news for Foley:

Foley leads with women and minority voters, who are expected to turn out in disproportionately larger numbers in this presidential election year.

Foley enjoys a slight lead among independent voters.

The key to this race appears to be the undecided independent voters, especially in Brookhaven. Independent voters make up the largest block of undecided voters and very well may decide this contest.

Right now, McCain vs. Obama is a dead heat in this district. Foley needs Obama to do better. Trunzo needs McCain to continue to keep it close.

If this poll is to be believed, the SD 3 race at the present time is very tight and could well be headed for a photo finish on election night!!

Look for lots of money to be spent and appearances on behalf of the candidates by the big guns on both sides in the weeks to come. This is exciting!

First, there's nothing exciting about Caesar Trunzo. Second, if the GOP is going to bring in some big guns to campaign with Trunzo, it means that they will actually have to produce him and show him in public. The press will be there. They take pictures.

I don't see that happening.

Foley has got some work to do but he's in a good spot now. He can makeup ground in Brookhaven and no way Trunzo holds on to the youth vote. I also think that Trunzo is overperforming in Islip. That won't last.

There is so much work to do. Doors to knock, phonecalls to make. But this is a winnable race. There is no doubt about it.

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